Policy makers, analysts, and civil society face increasing challenges to reducing hunger and improving food security in a sustainable way. Modeling alternative future scenarios and assessing their outcomes can help inform policy choices. The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is an integrated system of linked economic, climate, water, and crop models that allows for the exploration of such scenarios.
At IMPACT’s core is a partial equilibrium, the multimarket economic model that simulates national and international agricultural markets. Links to climate, water, and crop models support the integrated study of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis of a variety of critical issues of interest to policy makers at national, regional, and global levels. IMPACT benefits from close interactions with scientists at all 15 CGIAR research center through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight (GFSF) program, and with other leading global economic modeling efforts around the world through Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).
This dataset summarizes results from the latest IMPACT projections to 2030 and 2050. Results are included for production, consumption, and for the population at risk of hunger, by region and for selected countries. The projections are for two “baseline scenarios”-one considers the impacts of climate change, while the assumes no climate change (for comparison).